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| 脑卒中患者住院期间腹泻预测模型的建立 |
| Establishment of a diarrhea prediction model for stroke patients during hospitalization |
| 投稿时间：2024-04-01 |
| DOI：10.3969/j.issn.1000-0399.2025.01.003 |
| 中文关键词: 脑卒中 腹泻 预测模型 列线图 |
| 英文关键词: Stroke Diarrhea Prediction model Nomograph |
| 基金项目:河北省医学科学研究重点课题计划（编号：20241055）;湖北陈孝平科技发展基金（编号：CXPJJH123010-14） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 目的 探讨脑卒中患者住院期间腹泻的危险因素并建立风险预测模型，为临床治疗工作提供科学依据。方法 回顾性分析2022年1月至2023年12月河北医科大学第二医院神经内科重症监护室280例患者的资料。采用logistic回归分析脑卒中患者住院期间腹泻的危险因素，建立风险预测模型，采用受试者工作特征曲线评价模型的灵敏度，校准曲线、临床决策分析曲线评价模型的辨识度、准确度和临床应用效果。结果280例患者中，198例患者出现腹泻，腹泻发生率为70.7%。logistic回归分析结果显示，住院时间、患有糖尿病、急性胃肠损伤（AGI）评分是脑卒中患者住院期间发生腹泻的危险因素，回归方程Y=-3.834+0.163×住院时间+1.192×是否患有糖尿病+1.295×AGI评分。预测模型的受试者工作特征曲线下面积为0.911。结论 住院时间、是否患有糖尿病、AGI评分是脑卒中患者住院期间发生腹泻的危险因素，脑卒中患者住院期间发生腹泻的风险预测模型具备较好的辨识度、准确性，可为临床医护人员开展后续治疗及干预提供科学依据。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Objective To investigate the risk factors of diarrhea in stroke patients during hospitalization and establish a risk prediction model to provide scientific basis for clinical treatment. Methods The data of 280 patients in the Neurological Intensive Care Unit of the Second Hospital of Hebei Medical University from January 2022 to December 2023 were retrospectively analyzed. Logistic regression was used to analyze the risk factors of diarrhea in stroke patients during hospitalization, and the risk prediction model was established. The sensitivity, calibration curve and clinical decision analysis curve of the model were evaluated by using the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve to evaluate the identification, accuracy and clinical application effect of the model.. Results Among the 280 patients, 198 patients had diarrhea, and the incidence of diarrhea was 70.7%. Logistic regression results showed that length of stay, diabetes mellitus or not, and acute gastrointestinal injury (AGI) score were risk factors for diarrhea in stroke patients during hospitalization. Regression equation Y=-3.834+0.163×length of stay +1.192×diabetes mellitus or not +1.295×AGI score. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.911. Conclusion Length of stay, diabetes and AGI score are risk factors for diarrhea in stroke patients. The risk prediction model for diarrhea in stroke patients has good discernability and accuracy, which can provide scientific basis for clinical staff to carry out follow-up treatment and intervention. |
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