| Objective To analyze the risk factors of kinetophobia in patients with lower extremity arteriosclerotic obliterans (ASO), and to construct a prediction model of kinetophobia in patients with ASO. Methods By using the convenience sampling method, 228 cases of ASO admitted to the First Affiliated Hospital of Nanjing Medical University from February 2020 to January 2024 were selected as the subjects. The clinical data were collected uniformly, and the patients were divided into the kinesiophobia group (86 cases) and the non-kinesiophobia group (142 cases) according to whether they developed kinesiophobia. Logistic regression analysis was used to screen the risk factors for the occurrence of kinesophobia in ASO patients. A nomogram prediction model for predicting the occurrence of kinesophobia in ASO patients was constructed through R (R4.2.1) language software. The Hosmer-Lemeshow test was applied to evaluate the model fit. Finally, the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC), calibration curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA) were used to evaluate the discrimination, calibration, and clinical influence of the model. Results The incidence of kineshobia among 228 ASO patients was 37.72%. Logistic regression analysis showed that age ≥60 years old, primary school education or below, Fontaine stage Ⅳ, poor lower extremity function, anxiety and depression, severe pain, poor cognition of the benefits of exercise, and poor family care were risk factors for the occurrence of kinesophobia (P<0.05). The H-L test yielded χ2=10.706 and P=0219. ROC analysis showed that the AUC value of the nomogram model for the occurrence of kineshobia in ASO patients constructed in this study was 0.834, and the sensitivity and specificity was 78.60% and 83.10%, respectively. When the correction curve was 23%~85%, the predicted value of the correction curve was relatively close to the actual value. When the prediction threshold probability of the model was greater than 12%, the net benefit value of predicting the risk of kinesophobia in ASO patients using the nomogram constructed in this study was the highest Conclusion The ASO patient kineshobia risk prediction model constructed based on age, education level, Fontaine stage, lower limb function, anxiety and depression, pain severity, perception of exercise benefits, and family care degree has certain predictive value for clinical identification of high-risk individuals, and can be used for risk assessment of kineshobia in ASO patients. |
