| Objective To explore the risk factors of NEC in preterm infants within 34 weeks of gestational age and further construct the clinical predictive model to provide reference for accurately identifying high-risk newborns and formulating more targeted early prevention and treatment intervention programs. Methods A total of 317 premature infants within 34 weeks of gestational age during delivery in our hospital from January 2020 to January 2024 were retrospectively included and grouped according to whether NEC was present or not. Univariate and multivariate analysis was used to assess the risk factors for NEC in premature infants under 34 weeks of gestational age. A risk prediction model was constructed for NEC in premature infants under 34 weeks of gestational age and its predictive efficacy was analysed. Results TA total of 20 cases were diagnosed with NEC in all 317 premature infants, accounting for 6.31%. The onset time of NEC was 4 to 20 days after delivery, with an average onset time of (12.78±3.40) days postpartum, among which 71 cases received surgical treatment and 246 cases received conservative treatment. After 12 months of follow-up, there were 3 cases of cerebral palsy, 1 case of movement lag, and 1 case of developmental disorders. Univariate analysis showed statistically significant differences between the NEC group and the non-NEC group in terms of associated asphyxia, respiratory distress syndrome, sepsis, blood transfusion, breastfeeding, prophylactic use of probiotics, and hemodynamically significant patent ductus arteriosus (P<0.05). The results of logistic multivariate analysis confirmed that asphyxia, respiratory distress syndrome, sepsis, blood transfusion, breastfeeding, and prophylactic use of probiotics were all independent risk factors for NEC in premature infants under 34 weeks of gestation (P<0.05). A column chart model was constructed using respiratory distress syndrome, sepsis, asphyxia, blood transfusion, breastfeeding, and prophylactic probiotic use to predict the occurrence of NEC in premature infants using ROC curves. The areas under the curves were 0.661, 0.716, 0.756, 0.748, 0.777, 0.740, and 0.932, respectively. Conclusion The incidence of NEC in preterm infants within 34 weeks of gestational age may be closely related to asphyxia, respiratory distress syndrome, sepsis, blood transfusion, breastfeeding and probiotics. The column chart prediction model constructed using the above factors has shown good performance in predicting NEC in premature infants, and is worth further analysis in the work. |
