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| 急性脑卒中康复早期下肢行走能力恢复效果预测模型构建 |
| Prediction model construction for recovery effect of lower extremity walking ability in early rehabilitation stage of patients with acute stroke |
| 投稿时间：2025-05-26 |
| DOI：10.3969/j.issn.1000-0399.2026.05.010 |
| 中文关键词: 急性脑卒中 康复 下肢行走能力 预测模型 |
| 英文关键词: Acute stroke Rehabilitation Lower limb walking ability Prediction model |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 目的 评估急性脑卒中康复早期下肢行走能力恢复效果影响因素并进一步构建临床预测模型，以期为后续个体化康复干预方案制定提供更多参考。方法 回顾性分析2022年1月至2024年1月于六安市人民医院康复医学科接受康复治疗急性脑卒中住院患者243例相关临床资料，根据康复治疗后12周下肢行走能力恢复情况分为未恢复组（n=120）和恢复组（n=123）。采用单因素分析以及多因素分析的方法，分析急性脑卒中康复早期下肢行走能力恢复效果的独立影响因素，构建相关预测模型构建并评估预测效能。结果 243例患者康复治疗后12周下肢行走能力恢复率为50.62%。年龄、Berg平衡量表评分及改良Barthel指数均是急性脑卒中康复早期下肢行走能力恢复效果独立影响因素（P<0.05）。受试者工作特征（ROC）曲线分析列线图的预测效能，显示内部验证和外部验证的ROC曲线下面积（AUC）分别为0.952,0.794。结论 急性脑卒中康复早期下肢行走能力恢复效果与年龄、Berg平衡量表评分及改良Barthel指数密切相关；利用以上因素构建的列线图预测模型对于患者的恢复情况预测显示出良好的效能，值得在工作中深入分析。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Objective To investigate the influencing factors of the recovery effect of lower extremity walking ability in the early rehabilitation stage of patients with acute stroke and further construct the related predictive model to provide more references for the subsequent formulation of individualized rehabilitation intervention plans. Methods The relevant clinical data of 243 inpatients with acute stroke who received rehabilitation treatment in our hospital from January 2022 to January 2024 were retrospectively analyzed, and the patients were grouped according to the recovery effects of lower extremity walking ability 12 weeks after rehabilitation treatment. According to the recovery of lower limb walking ability at 12 weeks after rehabilitation treatment, patients were divided into the non-recovered group(n=120) and the recovered group(n=123). Using single factor analysis and multiple factor analysis methods, we analyzed the independent influencing factors of the early recovery effect of lower limb walking ability in acute stroke rehabilitation, constructed the predictive model for early recovery of lower limb walking ability in acute stroke rehabilitation, and analyzed the predictive efficacy. Results The recovery rate of lower extremity walking ability was 50.62%. Age, Berg balance scale score, and modified Barthel index are all independent factors affecting the early recovery of lower limb P walking ability in acute stroke rehabilitation(<0.05). ROC curves were used to analyze the predictive power of the column chart, which showed that the area under the ROC curves for internal and external validation was 0.952 and 0.794, respectively. Conclusion The recovery of lower extremity walking ability in the early stage of acute stroke rehabilitation is closely related to age, Berg Balance scale score and modified Barthel index. The column chart prediction model constructed using the above factors has shown good performance in predicting the recovery status of patients, and is worth further analysis in practice. |
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